
Traders unwound rate-hike bets after soft U.S. retail sales and PPI data. The dollar index fell 1% on the week as the yen, euro, and sterling rallied.
The dollar is on track for a weekly decline as traders pulled back wagers on further Federal Reserve rate increases, a shift that rippled through currency markets from Tokyo to London.
The dollar index slipped 0.3% Friday, bringing its weekly loss to roughly 1%. The move followed a string of softer U.S. data, including a weaker-than-expected retail sales print and a downshift in producer prices. Those prints undercut the narrative that the Fed would need to resume tightening after the July hold.
The reversal hit hardest against the yen, where the dollar fell below 157 after touching 161.80 three weeks ago. The euro climbed through 1.0950 for the first time since March. Sterling pushed above 1.3050.
Treasury yields dropped across the curve. The two-year note, most sensitive to rate expectations, fell 12 basis points on the week. Real yields slipped in tandem, which traders said fed buying in gold. The metal rose 2.5% this week, back above $2,450.
For emerging-market currencies, the weaker dollar opened room for gains. The Mexican peso gained 1.7% against the greenback. The South African rand added 2.1%.
The next data marker is Wednesday's July PMI prints. A further miss on services or manufacturing would accelerate the unwind, several traders said. A beat would stall it.
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