
A hot CPI would send USD broadly higher, testing cable support at 1.2800 and USD/CHF resistance at 0.8140. A soft print revives September rate cut bets.
The dollar is drifting through Wednesday's European session, with traders parked ahead of the U.S. consumer price index release due at 8:30 a.m. ET. The move will set the near-term path for the greenback after a pullback that took the dollar index off its early-month highs.
Against the Canadian dollar, the pair is edging higher. The recent drop brought USD/CAD near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the October lows – the 1.3850 area – but the level has held so far, a trader in Toronto said. A break above 1.3950 after the CPI data would signal that the pullback is done, he added.
The dollar-Swiss franc pair is also drawing interest on dips. USD/CHF is a carry trade favorite given the rate spread, and one European desk said they would look to add near 0.8100. A break above the 0.8140 level would be a bullish trigger, though the pair could take its direction squarely from the CPI number.
Cable is a different story. Sterling broke above a resistance barrier from last week – the 1.2800 handle – and is grinding higher. The U.K. rates story remains supportive, with the Bank of England on hold while the Fed is seen cutting. A trader in London said they are buying dips in GBP/USD, calling it one of the few pairs where they are comfortable holding a long against the dollar.
Of course, the CPI release reshuffles the deck. A hot print would reinforce the case for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer, sending the dollar broadly higher and testing the support levels in cable and USD/CHF. A soft number would revive bets on a September cut, hurting the dollar and pushing cable toward 1.2900, traders said.
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website's early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today's financial landscape with confidence.
Prepared with AlphaScala editorial tooling from the source reporting linked above. Indexable analysis may include a cited Alpha Score value. Publishing checks screen each story before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.