Senate Majority Leader Thune pushes CLARITY Act to floor with 0.6% passage odds. Fed meets July 29, PCE inflation due Thursday. Iran truce lifts risk appetite.
Alpha Score of 62 reflects moderate overall profile with moderate momentum, weak value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune intends to bring the CLARITY Act to the floor before the August recess. The bill, which would create a federal framework for digital asset regulation, faces long odds. Prediction market Kalshi puts the chance of passage by August 1 at 0.6%.
Thune told reporters he would like to see a vote regardless of whether the bill has 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. “I would like to at least get Clarity started. We’ll see where the votes are,” he said.
An earlier version of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed the House. The Senate Banking Committee approved an amended version. A combined Banking and Agriculture Committee draft released this week includes ethics provisions, such as temporary restrictions on top federal officials issuing or sponsoring digital assets.
Republicans hold a 53-45 Senate majority, so the bill would need support from several Democrats. Senator Angela Alsobrooks has said the current plan is not consumer-friendly or robust on anti-money laundering. A coalition she leads has pushed back on the bill’s design.
Separately, a temporary truce in U.S. airstrikes on Iran has lifted risk appetite. Both sides have refrained from new attacks for three days. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said mediation efforts have continued and messages are being exchanged via intermediaries. He charged that Washington was hurting efforts to restore the diplomatic process. “It was the third time in the past year that Iran’s diplomatic efforts had been betrayed,” Baghaei said.
U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz explained Trump’s decision to end the bombing campaign. “He’s giving talks some space, he’s giving it a little bit of room,” Waltz said, according to FOX News.
The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision on July 29. CME FedWatch data shows a 62.1% probability that the fed funds target range stays at 3.50%-3.75%. Traders price a 37.9% chance of a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75%-4.00%. Markets will watch for any hints from Fed Chair Michelle Warsh on the path ahead.
The economic calendar remains full after the Fed meeting. Thursday brings second-quarter GDP, weekly jobless claims, and the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report. Economists estimate headline PCE rose 0.4% in June after a -0.1% reading in May. The annual rate is projected at 4.1%. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year.
Initial jobless claims are expected to rise to 203,000, up from 187,000 last week. A weaker labor market could support a dovish Fed stance, which tends to be bullish for risk assets including crypto.
The combination of a narrow legislative window for the CLARITY Act, a macro-heavy week, and a fragile geopolitical détente leaves traders watching multiple catalysts. No date has been set for the Senate floor vote on the CLARITY Act.
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