Crypto Stocks Face Hawkish Fed Risk. Rate Hike Odds Stand at 34%

Coinbase fell 2% to $164.69. Robinhood dropped 3% to $90.13. MSTR, by contrast, held near the flatline at $96.23. The moves came as the Federal Reserve prepared to announce its interest rate decision later today, a meeting carrying unusual uncertainty.

Interest-rate futures assigned a 33.7% probability to a surprise rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. A hold at 66.3% was the base case. JPMorgan analysts said they expected a hawkish hold. The bank predicted rates would stay put while the language tilted toward further tightening. A hawkish hold, the bank said, could leave the S&P 500 little changed or push it modestly lower. An unexpected 25-basis-point increase, by contrast, would likely trigger a sharper selloff across technology and crypto stocks.

Goldman Sachs highlighted the unusual uncertainty surrounding this meeting. A rate hike would represent one of the biggest policy surprises at a non-rate-cut meeting since the Fed began issuing formal policy statements, the bank said.

The three stocks share a common sensitivity to risk appetite. The mechanisms differ.

Coinbase derives revenue from trading volume and staking fees. Both shrink when higher rates pull capital out of crypto. A hawkish hold would likely keep volumes subdued. A cut or dovish language would add a tailwind, traders said. Robinhood faces a similar dynamic. The brokerage also carries a book sensitive to margin lending costs. Rising rates squeeze net interest income on the cash balances it holds. The stock's Q2 earnings release later today will show whether the brokerage has offset that pressure. Strategy holds a large Bitcoin treasury financed largely through convertible debt. A rate hike would raise its refinancing costs and pressure the stock if Bitcoin prices fall. A dovish outcome, by contrast, would lower the cost of carry on its debt stack, making the structure more attractive.

AlphaScala's proprietary scoring system rates COIN at 36 out of 100 and HOOD at 37, both in the 'Mixed' category. MSTR scores 28, landing in the 'Weak' category. The scores reflect the different risk profiles of the three names.

Robinhood is also scheduled to release its Q2, FY26 earnings results after the closing bell. The print adds another layer of event risk for the stock.

A rate hike would further strengthen the dollar. A stronger dollar typically dampens sentiment around crypto prices and the equities that track them. A hold or cut would ease that pressure, removing a headwind that has built over the past month.

The market is pricing in division among policymakers over inflation risks, JPMorgan said. The market's next move depends on the central bank's messaging alongside the rate decision. A hawkish hold would keep the dollar bid and risk assets under pressure. A dovish hold would relieve some of the tension built into the 33.7% hike probability.

The CME FedWatch Tool showed the odds of a rate hike at 33.7% as of the morning session. Goldman Sachs called a surprise increase one of the biggest policy shocks since the Fed formalized its statement process. The result is due at 2 p.m. Eastern.