Coinbase, Strategy and Circle report earnings as the Fed delivers its rate decision. Results will test whether crypto's rally translated into revenue growth.
Crypto-linked equities enter one of the busiest stretches of the quarter as two overlapping events – a Federal Reserve rate decision and a cluster of earnings reports – compete for investor attention.
The Fed announces its latest policy decision this afternoon. Coinbase, Strategy and Circle report results over the next two days. The combination means crypto stocks face a macro catalyst and a fundamentals check in the same window.
Futures markets assign a 64% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee holds rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with a 36% chance of a 25-basis-point increase to 3.75%-4.00%, according to CME FedWatch data. The rate decision itself is broadly expected. The focus will fall on Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference and any shift in the committee's inflation outlook.
A hawkish tone – one that signals rates stay elevated through the second half – tends to weigh on higher-risk assets including technology and crypto-related stocks. A more dovish read, with policymakers expressing confidence inflation is cooling, would improve expectations for future cuts and support risk appetite.
Beyond the macro setup, the earnings reports will test whether the first quarter's crypto price recovery translated into real revenue and profit growth.
Coinbase's results will offer a snapshot of retail and institutional trading activity through the period. Strategy's report will draw attention to its expanding Bitcoin treasury strategy and capital structure. Circle's numbers will test whether USDC circulation and reserve income held up as competition in the regulated stablecoin market intensified.
Circle also faces a recently lowered price target from Bernstein, which cut its valuation to $140 from $190 while maintaining an Outperform rating. Bernstein reduced its year-end 2026 USDC circulation estimate to $83 billion and its 2028 projection to $170 billion, reflecting a more measured growth path than previously assumed. The firm said concerns about the Open USD (OUSD) consortium launch appear overstated, calling the initiative unlikely to materially alter Circle's competitive position.
For individual stocks, the earnings reports may carry more weight than the Fed decision. A rate hold is priced in. What the companies say about revenue, guidance and treasury strategy will determine whether the sector's recent momentum has a fundamental foundation.
Coinbase reports after the close today. Strategy and Circle follow Thursday.
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