House passed CLARITY Act 294-134. Senate markup today needs 7 Democratic votes. Hashdex says crypto markets are massively underpricing the bill’s odds.
Alpha Score of 63 reflects moderate overall profile with moderate momentum, poor value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
The Senate Banking Committee meets in executive session today, May 14, to mark up the CLARITY Act, a bill that already cleared the House in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote. Hashdex warned this week that crypto markets are massively underpricing the bill’s odds of passing, a call that directly tests the derivatives and spot pricing built on years of enforcement-first regulation.
That House margin, with 71 Democrats crossing the aisle, established that crypto legislation can attract a supermajority when framed as consumer protection and US competitiveness. The markup is the first live check on whether that momentum survives the Senate. The bill needs at least 7 Democratic votes in committee to advance, a threshold that looks reachable when stacked against the House tally. If the committee reports the bill, the options market’s implied probability of a federal digital‑asset framework would immediately reprice.
The current market posture still trades regulatory headlines as secondary noise relative to macro rates and Bitcoin ETF flows. Hashdex’s warning points to a gap between legislative reality and positioning. Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives on the CME have not priced a Senate breakthrough, and offshore perpetual swaps show little premium for the possibility that a clear commodity‑versus‑security line becomes law.
The Banking Committee’s executive session is a working markup. Amendments can be offered, and a favorable recommendation would force leadership to schedule floor time. Republicans hold a slim majority, so the Democratic count is the binding constraint. The House vote provides a template: 71 Democrats supported the bill in July, and several Senate Democrats on the committee represent states with growing crypto employment or have signaled openness to a framework that does not default to the SEC’s current posture.
Key numbers shaping the session:
The markup outcome is not a final floor vote, however a committee report shifts the legislative calendar and the arc of enforcement risk. For crypto assets, that enforcement risk has been the single largest overhang keeping institutional allocators on the sidelines and forcing spot volumes onto offshore venues.
The bill’s core mechanism is a digital asset classification test that draws a line between decentralized commodities and investment contracts. Tokens that meet decentralization thresholds fall under CFTC oversight. Those that fail stay with the SEC. The bill also creates a limited federal charter for crypto exchanges, allowing them to operate across state lines without navigating 50 separate money‑transmitter regimes.
For Bitcoin and Ethereum, the framework largely codifies existing regulatory signals. The bigger impact lands on the long tail of altcoins and DeFi protocols that currently operate in a legal gray zone. A clear framework reduces the risk of sudden enforcement actions, which have historically triggered sharp selloffs in tokens named in SEC complaints.
Equally important, a statutory commodity definition unlocks the path for spot crypto ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. That product category has been stalled entirely by the lack of a legal classification for digital commodities. The SEC cannot approve a spot ETF on an asset that lacks a clear statutory home. The bill removes that blockage.
Crypto derivatives markets have spent most of 2025 trading on rate expectations and ETF flow data. Regulatory headlines that signal a structural shift have been treated as low‑probability events. Hashdex’s warning suggests that pricing is wrong. The House vote already demonstrated that crypto legislation can attract bipartisan majorities when it is framed as a competitiveness issue rather than a partisan fight.
If the Banking Committee reports the bill with a bipartisan vote, the narrative will shift from “if” to “when” on federal crypto rules. The number of Democratic yes votes is the signal to watch, not just the binary outcome. A count above the minimum 7 would signal that the 60‑vote Senate floor threshold is reachable. A count at or near 7 would point to a narrower path and a repricing that focuses on the committee victory itself rather than the full enactment odds.
The immediate decision point is the committee vote, which could come today or after a subsequent session. A favorable report would likely lift Bitcoin and exchange‑linked tokens. A stalled markup would keep the regulatory overhang intact and validate the current discount embedded in crypto assets trading as if Washington will never deliver a clear rulebook. For traders tracking the legislative path, the markup is the first of three gates: committee report, floor scheduling, and cloture. Each gate forces a repricing of crypto assets that have spent years pricing zero.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.