Crypto▼ Bearish
Crypto Market 62% Below Fair Value, Cowen Warns of More Downside
Bitcoin faces renewed Q3 weakness as total crypto market cap sits 62.5% below fair value, Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen says.
Continue with
The cryptocurrency market is trading at its deepest discount to long-term value since 2010, but market analyst Benjamin Cowen believes investors should not expect the bottom just yet. The Into The Cryptoverse founder says historical trends and macroeconomic conditions suggest another leg lower could arrive before the market begins its next recovery.
According to Cowen, the total crypto market capitalization stood at approximately $2.15 trillion on July 31, while his logarithmic regression model estimated its fair value at around $5.74 trillion. That places the market roughly 62.5% below its long-term trend, making it one of the most undervalued periods in crypto history. The only time the market traded at a deeper discount was in September 2010, shortly after Bitcoin's launch.
Despite the attractive valuation, Cowen cautioned that the discount could widen further because the model's fair value continues to rise over time, even if prices remain flat. He also pointed to weaker retail participation and recent security incidents, including Coldcard-related hacks, as factors weighing on market sentiment.