Crypto Lost Speculative Traders to Hynix and Sports Betting, Novogratz Says

Novogratz still sees a path for Bitcoin to reach $100,000. It requires three catalysts: the CLARITY Act passing, Federal Reserve rate cuts and a renewed base of buyers. He does not expect rate cuts this year. On the CLARITY Act, he put the odds at roughly 60/40 or "maybe two-thirds." His base case puts Bitcoin between $60,000 and $80,000 for the rest of the year. A break above $80,000 would open the way to $100,000, he said.

Behind the scenes, the infrastructure build continues. Novogratz said he is working on deals with five or six large traditional institutions to help build crypto infrastructure. He pointed to automatic settlement and the ability to transfer value over the internet as technologies that could eventually serve broader financial markets. "I'm literally doing deals with five or six, hopefully, big traditional institutions to help build infrastructure," he said.

Crypto remains more important in many overseas markets than in the United States, where traditional financial services are already highly developed. Novogratz said the next major phase for crypto may not be driven by hype and leveraged trading. The infrastructure being built today could bring real financial institutions and users into the ecosystem, even after the speculative crowd has moved on.