Crypto lagged stocks and gold after the US canceled strikes on Iran. Santiment said a diplomatic resolution could drive a catch-up. Google searches for Bitcoin hit a three-month high, the firm said.
Alpha Score of 68 reflects moderate overall profile with moderate momentum, strong value, strong quality, weak sentiment.
Stocks and gold rallied Monday after the White House canceled planned military strikes on Iran. Silver rose too. Crypto moved higher though at a slower pace. Bitcoin added 2.1% to $67,400. Ethereum rose 1.6% to $3,120.
The S&P 500 gained 1.8%. Gold climbed 2.3% to $2,390 an ounce. Silver added 3.1%. The dollar index fell 0.4%, making dollar-denominated assets cheaper for overseas buyers. The 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.28%, its lowest in a week.
Crypto analytics firm Santiment said the lag reflects a shift toward traditional safe havens during the standoff. If a diplomatic resolution takes hold, Santiment expects crypto to catch up. The firm said Google search volumes for "Bitcoin" and "crypto" rose over the weekend, hitting a three-month high, a sign retail interest remains intact.
The U.S. called off the strikes after a Sunday night round of negotiations with Gulf allies. The Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint, had been at the center of the confrontation. Oil fell 3% to $80.50 a barrel, pulling back from six-month highs. Lower oil prices typically reduce inflation expectations, which in turn supports risk assets, traders said.
The Fed releases its June meeting minutes on Wednesday. Traders said minutes that show the committee discussing rate cuts would be positive for risk assets, including crypto. A hawkish tone could pressure Bitcoin toward its recent lows, traders added.
Bitcoin's rally stalled near $68,000 resistance before the announcement. A break above that level would open the door to $70,000, several traders said. Support sits at $65,500, the level that held during the strike panic.
In the options market, call buying picked up late last week. Deribit data show open interest at $70,000 strikes increased by 12% since Friday. Some traders said the options positioning points to expected upside.
The geopolitical risk premium in crypto built up over two weeks. Bitcoin traded as low as $63,000 after the initial strike threats. The pullback from there to $67,400 represents a partial recovery, though not a full one.
The next catalyst is a scheduled meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives in Oman on Thursday. A positive outcome would remove the remaining risk premium, traders said. A failure could send Bitcoin back toward $65,000, they added.
Crypto correlation with the S&P 500 stood at 0.65, near a one-year high, according to data from IntoTheBlock. A continued rally in equities would likely support crypto, traders said.
Among altcoins, Solana rose 3.4% and Cardano added 2.8%. Dogecoin was flat. Spot trading volume on centralized exchanges rose 15% from the previous Monday, data from CoinGecko show.
The Oman meeting is scheduled for Thursday.
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