Jefferies predicts $1 trillion crypto public market in five years. Regulatory and execution risks remain. Tokenization and stablecoins are the key drivers behind the IPO wave.
Jefferies expects a surge of crypto-related public listings over the next two years and believes the sector could grow into a $1 trillion public market within five years. The projection came after the bank's first Digital Assets Investor Conference in New York, which gathered executives from 35 digital asset companies alongside roughly 150 institutional investors. The conversation at the conference focused less on bitcoin price speculation and more on how blockchain systems are increasingly being integrated into traditional finance.
“Client engagement continues to grow as focus shifts to emerging beneficiaries as banks, exchanges, asset managers, fintechs and payments companies integrate blockchain infrastructure,” the Jefferies report said.
The crypto IPO market has slowed this year after a booming 2025 that saw several digital asset firms go public amid rising bitcoin prices and renewed investor appetite for crypto-related stocks. The recent pullback in listings has largely tracked broader market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. Another wave of offerings is expected later this year, with companies including Securitize and Payward, the parent company of Kraken, finalizing IPO plans.
The $1 trillion figure is not a forecast of token prices or trading volumes. It represents the potential aggregate market capitalisation of publicly listed companies whose primary business is blockchain-based financial infrastructure. Jefferies sees the next two years as the window in which the pipeline of private crypto companies converts to public listings, driven by institutional adoption rather than retail speculation.
Panelists at the conference described a growing ecosystem where banks, trading platforms and payments firms use blockchain networks to reduce settlement times, improve capital efficiency and launch new financial products. Tokenization – the process of representing financial assets on blockchain networks – was cited as one of the biggest drivers behind that shift. Executives said tokenized money market funds, private credit products and blockchain-based settlement systems are already moving into production following recent regulatory guidance that reduced legal uncertainty around digital assets.
“We’re moving into a world where essentially the entire economy is going to be tokenized,” said Joseph Lubin, CEO and founder of Consensys, speaking at Consensus Miami earlier this year.
Stablecoins and tokenized payments were repeatedly cited as key areas of near-term growth, especially as payment companies look for ways to lower the cost of cross-border transfers and operate around the clock. The conference featured executives from firms including Ripple, Kraken, Galaxy (GLXY), Bullish (BLSH) and Consensys.
Jefferies argued that further regulatory clarity could accelerate adoption even more, particularly among heavily regulated financial institutions. The bank pointed to the proposed CLARITY Act, which would establish a broader market structure framework for digital assets in the U.S. The legislation could become “the missing piece” that drives more institutional investments and pushes blockchain-based finance further into the mainstream.
The CLARITY Act aims to define which digital assets are securities, which are commodities, and how trading platforms must register. If passed, it would reduce the legal uncertainty that has kept many traditional financial firms from deploying capital into blockchain-based products. Jefferies noted that the conference discussions reflected a broader change in investor attention away from meme coins and speculative trading activity toward blockchain systems generating revenue from trading, payments, lending and tokenized financial products.
“Investors frequently overestimate the magnitude of tech disruption in the near term and underestimate it over the longer term,” the report said.
Several private crypto companies are already finalizing IPO plans. Securitize, a tokenization firm, partnered earlier this year with transfer agent Computershare to help public companies issue tokenized shares directly within existing shareholder record systems. Bullish (BLSH), the owner of CoinDesk, agreed to acquire transfer agent Equiniti for $4.2 billion to strengthen its blockchain-based settlement infrastructure. Payward, the parent company of Kraken, is also preparing for a public listing.
The report highlighted how traditional financial firms are increasingly partnering with crypto-native infrastructure providers rather than competing directly with them. Morgan Stanley, with an Alpha Score of 57/100 (Moderate), is among the traditional firms integrating blockchain infrastructure, though its exposure to crypto IPOs remains indirect. The trend of Wall Street adopting blockchain technology regardless of bitcoin price movements has been a recurring theme in recent months. JPMorgan and other traditional fintech firms are going all-in on adopting the technology into their business models.
Jefferies' five-year $1 trillion projection carries several execution risks. The crypto IPO market has already slowed this year after a strong 2025, and the recent pullback in listings has tracked broader market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. If the CLARITY Act stalls or fails to pass, the regulatory clarity that Jefferies sees as the missing piece may not materialize, delaying institutional adoption.
Key insight: The shift from speculative trading to revenue-generating blockchain infrastructure is the structural change Jefferies is betting on. Confirmation would come from a steady drumbeat of crypto IPOs in the next 12-18 months, combined with rising assets under management in tokenized products. Weakening signals would include a prolonged IPO drought, regulatory setbacks, or a return to price-driven narratives that overshadow infrastructure development.
For traders, the $1 trillion figure is a long-range anchor, not a near-term catalyst. The immediate watchlist items are the CLARITY Act timeline and the IPO filings from Securitize and Payward. If those listings proceed without major hiccups, the pipeline for the next wave of crypto public companies will be validated. If they stall, the five-year projection will look optimistic.
Jefferies' report is a bet on infrastructure over speculation. The next 12 months will test whether institutional adoption can sustain the momentum that the conference described.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.