Crypto Clarity Act odds sink to 16% after Peirce predicts Senate passage

The bill still needs 60 votes in the full Senate, a high bar in a chamber where crypto legislation has stalled before. Unresolved ethics provisions and the rules around stablecoin yields remain sticking points. Peirce has said the Act would impose significant rulemaking obligations on the SEC, but she does not set the Senate calendar.

Market participants are watching for a scheduling announcement from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Any statement from the White House, where President Trump has not taken a public position on the bill, would also shift the odds. Without those confirmations, the 16.5% price reflects a market that is pricing in continued delay.

The Clarity Act would define which digital assets fall under SEC versus CFTC jurisdiction. That split is the core of the legislative fight. The SEC has argued for broad authority over tokens it deems securities, while the CFTC has pushed for a narrower definition that would leave most crypto trading under its oversight. The bill's passage would end years of regulatory turf war, but the market is not betting on a resolution this year.