Crypto Clarity Act Odds Fall to 34% on Trump-Ethics Fight

Polymarket bettors now see only a 34% chance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becomes law in 2026, down from 37% a week ago. The slide followed a breakdown in Senate negotiations over ethics amendments tied to President Trump's personal crypto holdings.

Trump's 2025 financial disclosure, released last month, showed roughly $594 million tied to World Liberty Financial and about $635 million linked to the TRUMP memecoin project. Democratic senators, led by Elizabeth Warren, are demanding strict ethics restrictions on high-ranking officials before they support the bill, according to a Senate committee report.

Republican lawmakers rejected any clause aimed specifically at the president's investments. The Republican caucus argued those additions would shatter the bipartisan consensus built around the market structure, the report said.

The bill passed the House and cleared the Senate Banking Committee. It has no scheduled date for a floor vote.

Odds Slide on Ethics Deadlock

Polymarket's contract has drawn roughly $1.9 million in volume, a sign the standoff is drawing real-money interest. The probability has zigzagged from a high of 52% in early June to the current 34% as each round of talks produced no deal.

The core dispute is whether ethics rules should apply retroactively to holdings acquired before the legislation takes effect. Democratic staffers want a two-year cooling-off period for senior officials' crypto assets. Republicans say that would force Trump to divest from positions he built while the bill was being drafted, a condition they call punitive.