Crypto Bull Market Indicators: ETF Flows and On-Chain Data

The next Bitcoin halving is expected around April or May 2028, when the block reward drops from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. Previous halvings have preceded major rallies, though the timing has varied. The 2024 halving, for example, was followed by a rally that peaked roughly 18 months later.

A genuine uptrend typically spreads beyond Bitcoin. Ethereum tends to strengthen, and trading volumes rise across the market. Falling Bitcoin dominance can signal capital rotating into altcoins. A handful of tokens rallying does not constitute a broad altcoin season, traders said. Broad outperformance across multiple tokens is the more reliable signal. Traders often look at the total market capitalization of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum to gauge rotation, several said.

Glassnode's realized profit and loss metric also offers a gauge of whether holders are selling into strength or distress. Positive realized profit over sustained periods suggests the market is absorbing selling pressure, the firm said.

No single metric confirms a rally. Traders look for several signals to line up. Rising prices supported by capital inflows and on-chain data carry more conviction than a price move alone, several market participants said. The duration of the signals matters. A three-day spike in price is not the same as a three-week move above key levels, traders said. The next scheduled halving in 2028 provides a structural supply constraint. The market's ability to absorb that supply depends on demand from both retail and institutional investors, analysts said.