Crude Slides Fourth Day as Hormuz Flows Near Pre-War Levels

Crude oil futures fell for a fourth straight session on Thursday, with prices pressing back toward levels last seen before the US-Iran conflict disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

September Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange were at $72.86 a barrel, down 1.37%. August West Texas Intermediate futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded at $69.33, down 1.44%. On India's Multi Commodity Exchange, July crude oil futures opened at ₹6,567, down 1.53% from the previous close of ₹6,669.

The move followed comments from US Energy Secretary Chris Wright at the Reuters Global Energy Forum in New York. Wright said flows through the Strait of Hormuz were close to pre-war levels, with at least 20 million barrels of oil having transited the waterway in the prior 24 hours. He cautioned that a full return to normal operations would take weeks.

President Donald Trump added to the easing sentiment. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said no charges were being sought or received by Iran on ships travelling the strait. He also said no money had been given to Iran or released from Iranian funds by the US. Trump stated that some Iranian money, held under US control, would be used to purchase corn, wheat, and soybeans from American farmers for Iran, citing food needs in the country.

The supply-side relief comes alongside a draw in US crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude oil stocks fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week ended June 19, to 412.1 million barrels. That level sits about 7% below the five-year seasonal average.

Gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels, leaving them 5% below the five-year average. Distillate fuel stocks increased by 3.1 million barrels and were roughly 10% below the average.

Total products supplied over the last four weeks averaged 20.5 million barrels per day, up 2.1% from the same period last year. Motor gasoline supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels per day, down 3% year-on-year. Distillate fuel supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels per day, up 3.2%. Jet fuel supplied was up 0.9% over the same four-week window.

The inventory data points to steady domestic demand, the market's focus remains on the return of supply through the Strait of Hormuz. With flows near pre-war levels and no new escalation from either side, the risk premium that had been baked into crude prices since the conflict began is unwinding. The question for traders is how much of that premium has already been priced out, and at what level physical buying emerges to stabilise the market.

For now, the path of least resistance is lower, absent a fresh catalyst. The EIA's next weekly report and any further statements from the administration on Iran will be the near-term triggers to watch.