Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Geopolitical Chaos Keeps Market Trapped
WTI and Brent bounced from the 200-week EMA as geopolitical headlines over the Strait of Hormuz dominated trading. The $70 level is now support.
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Crude oil prices swung wildly this week. WTI gapped lower on Monday, touching the 200-week exponential moving average, then rebounded. Brent followed the same pattern. Both contracts ended the week little changed. The intraday range was extreme.
The trigger was escalating rhetoric over the Strait of Hormuz. Traders said the market was reacting to comments from the Trump administration and Iranian officials, not to physical supply and demand. The $70 level on WTI, a former resistance zone, now acts as support. A break below that would open the door to the 200-week EMA. The moving average has held as a floor during previous selloffs, traders said.
Global supply concerns remain. The immediate driver is headline risk. The market is closed for the weekend. Traders are bracing for more news. The 200-week EMA is the key level to watch. If it breaks, the next support is the 2024 low near $65, according to technical analysts.
The oil price volatility is feeding into broader risk appetite. The Canadian dollar, sensitive to crude, has weakened against the US dollar, traders said. The energy sector in the S&P 500 has also come under pressure. The 200-week EMA remains the floor to watch next week.
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