Crude Oil: Transport Disruptions Replace Supply as Key Risk

MUFG economists see oil prices vulnerable to further gains after Friday's pullback, with disruption to global shipping routes now a bigger driver than direct supply losses. West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $85.88 a barrel on Friday after retreating from earlier highs.

The shift in focus reflects a market more worried about how transport bottlenecks affect delivery timing and costs than about production cuts alone, the MUFG team said in a note. They did not specify a price target but warned that the risk of fresh upside remains elevated as long as shipping disruptions persist.

WTI has rallied roughly 15% this year on a combination of OPEC+ supply restraint and geopolitical tensions. Friday's decline came without an obvious catalyst, which the economists said could signal that the market is pausing rather than reversing.