Crude Oil Rebound Meets OPEC+ Supply Cap at $72 Resistance

Razan Hilal, market analyst at FOREX.com, said the upside is capped by rising OPEC+ production and recovering Gulf exports. Libya's Sharara field resumed output at 270,000 barrels per day this week, while Iraq signaled it would pump above its quota for a third consecutive month. Those supply additions offset the risk premium from Middle East shipping disruptions.

On the downside, WTI has support at $67.50, the December low. A break below that level would open a test of $65, the August trough. Hilal said the broader downtrend remains intact unless WTI closes above $72 with volume confirmation.

The weekly inventory report due Thursday from the Energy Information Administration will provide the next catalyst. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect a 1.5 million barrel drawdown, which would be the first decline in three weeks.