
WTI crude gapped higher Monday, touched the 200-day EMA, then reversed. Middle East headlines drive the market, Chris said. Support at $70, resistance at $85. Weekend gap risk.
WTI crude oil futures (CL) gapped higher at the open Monday, touched the 200-day exponential moving average, then reversed. The move reflects geopolitical headlines from the Middle East, not supply-demand fundamentals, Chris, a senior analyst at FXEmpire, said.
The 200-day EMA offered resistance, Chris noted. Brent crude also opened with a gap. It pierced the 200-day EMA and reached toward $85 before failing just shy of that level. Chris described the turn as "confused market behavior."
The market is driven by headlines from Tehran and Washington, with the Strait of Hormuz as the focal point. "Traders are more worried about what's going to happen in the Strait of Hormuz than anything else," Chris said. Supply and demand are not the direct driver at the moment.
The biggest risk, Chris said, is a weekend gap in either direction. "Pretty much anything can happen over the weekend," he said. Position sizing is critical given the volatility. The 200-day EMA currently sits near current prices, a neutral level from a longer-term perspective, he added.
Chris pointed to technical levels to watch. The $70 level underneath has been support. The $85 level has acted as a magnet recently. Some technical traders may see a potential falling wedge pattern, a bullish sign, Chris said.
The market has been volatile over the last couple of months. The current setup demands caution, especially ahead of the weekend. The $85 level remains a key level to watch, Chris said.
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