Nifty fell 0.29% after opening positive. IT stocks rose 1-3.5% while energy and aviation dragged. The 23,760 support is key with Iran headlines driving the close.
Alpha Score of 57 reflects moderate overall profile with weak momentum, strong value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
Markets opened with a constructive tone Friday morning as crude oil eased into the $87–$89 per barrel range. By midday, both benchmark indices had reversed into negative territory. The Nifty 50 slipped to 23,837.00, down 70.15 points or 0.29%, while the Sensex traded at 75,751.77, down 116.03 points or 0.15%.
The simple read is that a morning rally faded on renewed geopolitical uncertainty. The better market read traces the cause-and-effect chain more precisely. The fade followed comments from U.S. Vice President JD Vance that it remains "hard to say when or if" President Donald Trump will sign the proposed U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding. Oil traders had been pricing a higher probability of a diplomatic deal, which had supported the crude easing. Vance’s remarks reintroduced the very uncertainty that underpinned the morning’s constructive tone. The rally was not false; it was a positioning shift that reversed when the catalyst behind the shift lost probability.
MCX Crude Oil opened with a gap down and traded in the ₹8,400–₹8,450 zone with a cautiously bearish bias. For Indian equities, lower crude normally acts as a net positive: it cuts the import bill, benefits downstream margins, and supports the rupee. Transmission is never uniform across sectors.
ONGC fell 2.28% to ₹267.80. Lower crude prices compress upstream realisations directly. The mechanism is straight-line: a $3 move in Brent changes ONGC’s EBITDA by roughly 5–6%. With oil already below $90, further easing is a profit headwind, not a tailwind. The market priced that reality immediately.
IndiGo declined 2.34% to ₹4,463.10 even though lower jet fuel costs are an unambiguous margin positive. The disconnect signals the market is pricing broader demand uncertainty or yield compression rather than fuel cost relief. When geopolitical risk rises, travel sentiment is one of the first items trimmed. Reading the aviation move as “crude down, airline up” is the naive take. The actual read is that airlines trade on traffic and revenue expectations first, fuel second.
The rupee traded in the 95.5–95.6 zone against the dollar, flat for the session. A steady rupee removes one variable for dollar-denominated importers. At the same time, it caps the tailwind for exporters. If the Iran MOU probability declines further, the rupee could come under renewed pressure from risk-off flows. That would reintroduce the import-inflation channel for crude and gold.
Infosys led the Nifty 50 gainers, rising 3.57% to ₹1,201.30. Tech Mahindra gained 2.01% to ₹1,484.90. Larsen & Toubro advanced 1.67% to ₹4,115.00. Wipro added 1.50% to ₹204.60, and HCL Technologies edged up 1.34% to ₹1,180.80.
The sector’s strength against a falling market signals a rotational bid. Three mechanisms support this move:
AlphaScala’s proprietary Alpha Score for INFY stands at 57/100, labelled Moderate, within the Technology sector. That reading suggests the stock is not yet flashing extreme conviction on either side. The moderate score at a 3.57% gain implies the move is more flow-driven than fundamental re-rating. Watch for follow-through volume above the recent range.
SBI Securities provided a clear fence for the Nifty. The 23,760–23,780 zone is the critical support band. Below that, the index could slide toward 23,500–23,400. On the upside, resistance sits at 24,000–24,020. A close above 24,020 would open a run at 24,220.
Options data confirms the tightening of the range. Meaningful call writing was seen at the 23,900 and 24,000 strikes, while the 23,800 put holds substantial open interest, followed by 23,700. The most pain zone is narrowing toward 23,800–23,850. For the Sensex, support is pegged at 75,500 and resistance at 76,300.
The blockquote names the single variable that matters for the rest of the session and the coming week.
Confirmation of a breakdown: a decisive hourly close below 23,760 with expanding volume and breadth readings would confirm that sellers have seized control. The Advance/Decline ratio already stood at a weak 14:36. A breach of 23,760 would put 23,500 in play and set up a test of the 23,400 prior swing low.
Weakening the bearish thesis: a move above 24,000 on rising participation, preferably accompanied by a drop in implied volatility on the put side. If the Vance comments are walked back or a positive Iran signal emerges, the positioning is short enough to fuel a squeeze. The most actionable piece for intraday traders is the 23,800 put open interest. That level has held as a magnet and a floor. A breach of it would trigger a gamma-related acceleration lower.
With roughly three hours left in the session, direction will hinge on whether Nifty can hold the 23,800 support level and whether global headlines provide any fresh trigger before the close. No additional data releases are scheduled. The U.S. futures market and any fresh Iran-related headlines from Washington will determine whether the afternoon drift continues or the buyers try to reclaim 24,000. The index is trading in a news-dependent zone where the only reliable signal is the price reaction at the defined support and resistance levels.
Individual stock moves will remain sector-specific. IT stocks are the near-term haven. Energy and aviation will continue to trade on the crude-geopolitics seesaw. Traders should not assume that a reprieve in oil automatically lifts all domestic equities; the Vance comments have redrawn the map for the day.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.