Crude Drop on Iran Ceasefire Lifts IT Stocks, Nifty Tests 24,000

Markets opened higher on Friday after reports of a 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension drove crude oil prices lower, boosting sentiment for information technology stocks. The Sensex rose 243 points to 76,111, and the Nifty 50 gained 49 points to 23,956. The rally rests on a single macro trigger: a potential de-escalation in the Middle East that would reduce India's energy import bill and ease pressure on the rupee.

Crude Oil Drops on U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Reports

Brent crude futures fell 1.04% to $91.74, and WTI crude dropped 1.48% to $87.58. On the MCX, June crude futures declined 1.36% to ₹8,421. The catalyst: unconfirmed reports that the U.S. and Iran agreed to extend a ceasefire by 60 days. Neither President Donald Trump nor Iranian authorities have officially confirmed the deal.

The simple read is that lower oil reduces India's import bill and inflation pressure. The better market read runs deeper. A sustained drop in crude improves India's current account deficit, stabilises the rupee, and reduces the risk premium on domestic equities. That sequence could slow or reverse the FII outflow that has been a persistent drag. Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, made the connection direct:

The Transmission Path: From Oil to Rupee to IT Margins

The chain of impact runs through three nodes:

• Oil to inflation – Lower crude reduces input costs for refiners, transporters, and chemical companies. It also lowers the subsidy burden, improving fiscal headroom.
• Oil to rupee – A narrower current account deficit supports the currency. The rupee traded in the 95.6–95.8 zone against the dollar on Friday, still under pressure less than if crude had stayed elevated.
• Rupee to IT stocks – Indian IT companies earn a majority of revenue in dollars. A stable or weaker rupee boosts the rupee value of that revenue. The bigger factor on Friday, however, was improved global tech sentiment alongside the geopolitical de-escalation.

Wipro rose 3.25% to ₹208.13, Infosys climbed 3.17% to ₹1,196.70, HCL Technologies added 1.73%, TCS gained 1.55%, and Tech Mahindra rose 1.24%. The sector led the Nifty gainers list.

AlphaScala’s proprietary scoring system rates INFY at 57/100 (Moderate) and WIT at 46/100 (Mixed). The scores reflect a sector that lacks strong company-specific catalysts despite the day’s price action. The rally is driven by a macro catalyst, not an earnings beat.

IT Stock Moves in Early Trade

The dispersion among the five largest IT stocks shows the move is macro-driven, not stock-specific. If the ceasefire narrative fades, the gains could reverse quickly.

Nifty Tests 24,000 Against Persistent FII Selling

The Nifty is testing the 24,000 resistance level. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said a new uptrend rally is possible only after 24,000 was breached. After a breakout, the market could move toward 24,200–24,250. On the downside, 23,800 is immediate support, with the 23,500–23,600 zone acting as a stronger demand area.

FIIs remained net sellers, offloading equities worth ₹1,042.70 crore in the previous session. DIIs bought ₹3,821 crore, providing a counterweight. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, noted that persistent FII outflows remain a key concern and could limit the extent of any near-term domestic market recovery.

Practical rule: A crude-driven rally without FII buying confirmation is a tactical move, not a structural shift. Watch for FII flow data in the next two sessions to see if the ceasefire narrative changes their positioning.

Nifty Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate resistance: 24,000 (critical for a new uptrend)
• Next upside target: 24,200–24,250 after a breakout
• Immediate support: 23,800
• Strong demand zone: 23,500–23,600

Bank Nifty Levels

• Resistance zone: 55,400–55,600
• Support zone: 54,400–54,200

Next Decision Point: Confirmation, Crude Levels, and Domestic Flows

The next catalyst is official confirmation of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension. Without it, crude could snap back, reversing the macro tailwind. Brent below $90 would be a strong signal that the risk premium is unwinding. A failure to hold below $92 would suggest the market is sceptical.

On the domestic side, the Nifty 24,000 level is the immediate battleground. A close above it with volume would open the path to 24,200. A rejection would keep the index range-bound between 23,500 and 24,000, with FII selling as the primary headwind.

Hariprasad K, Founder of Livelong Wealth, cautioned that despite supportive global cues, traders are likely to remain cautious ahead of the weekend. Any unexpected geopolitical escalation could trigger sharp one-sided global moves when markets reopen next week.

For traders, the setup is clear: the ceasefire report is a tactical positive. It needs confirmation from official sources and follow-through in FII flows. Until then, the rally is a counter-trend move within a broader consolidation. The market analysis page tracks the key levels, and the geopolitical de-escalation article explains a similar crude-driven move. The next session will tell whether the crude drop is a one-day event or the start of a macro regime shift.