Cracker Barrel Earnings Preview: EPS Seen Falling 77% as Revenue Slips
Cracker Barrel reports Q4 earnings Sept 23 with EPS forecast down 77% to $0.17. GuruFocus flags a 42% dividend cut over three years and weak financial strength.
Alpha Score of 42 reflects weak overall profile with weak momentum, poor value, weak quality, moderate sentiment.
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc reports fiscal Q4 earnings before the opening bell on Wednesday, Sept. 23. Analysts expect earnings per share of $0.17, down 77% from a year earlier, on revenue of $844.99 million, a 2.7% decline, according to data compiled by GuruFocus.
The company has beaten EPS and revenue estimates 63% of the time over the past two years, and several analysts raised their forecasts in recent weeks, GuruFocus said. The stock traded at $45.48 as of Tuesday's close, giving it a market capitalization of $1.02 billion.
Income investors face a mixed picture. Cracker Barrel’s current dividend yield stands at 2.2%, but the payout ratio of 5.43 means the company is distributing more than it earns. The dividend has been cut 42.3% over the past three years, GuruFocus noted, suggesting further cuts remain a risk.
GuruFocus’ GF Value calculation, which blends historical multiples, past returns, and analyst estimates, pegs fair value at $46.92, implying the stock is about 3.1% undervalued. The GF Score, a composite of financial strength, profitability, growth, valuation, and momentum, sits at 67 out of 100, reflecting mixed fundamentals. Valuation scored 9 out of 10 and profitability scored 7, while financial strength scored just 3 and growth scored 2, dragged by a 94.2% drop in trailing earnings per share and declining revenue per share.
Insider activity adds a cautionary signal. No insider has bought shares in the past 12 months, while sales totaled $15 million, GuruFocus said. Among GuruFocus-tracked gurus, only one holds the stock, and two reduced their positions in recent quarters. No new guru positions were reported.
The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 39.38 times, well above the five-year median of 22.05 times, underscoring the earnings compression. Cracker Barrel operates a chain of full-service restaurants and retail gift shops, mostly near highway exits across the U.S., blending Southern-style cooking with merchandise sales.
The company will release results before the market opens on Wednesday.
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