Corporate Australia Shifts Bets to Copper, Critical Minerals

This reporting season is showing where Australia's largest companies are placing their money for the years ahead, according to Dale Gillham, chief analyst at Wealth Within.

BHP Group Ltd's (BHP) latest result showed copper overtaking iron ore as its largest earnings contributor. Rio Tinto Ltd (RTNTF) has delivered $870 million in productivity benefits while increasing exposure to copper, aluminium and lithium. Across the mining sector, investment continues to flow into copper, lithium, rare earths and critical minerals. These are not decisions made for the next quarter, Gillham said. They are bets on where demand could be years from now.

After a difficult period, CSL Ltd (CSL) expects underlying profit to grow in FY27 despite broadly flat revenue. AGL Energy is forecasting stronger earnings as its battery portfolio expands and costs fall. Gillham said he would watch for companies with three qualities: falling costs, improving earnings potential, and investment in areas where future demand is growing.

Sector performance this week reflected the shift. The healthcare sector rose more than 11%, driven largely by CSL's impressive result. The materials sector gained more than 5% as investors responded positively to mining giants including BHP and Rio Tinto continuing to shift toward higher-growth commodities. The gains helped offset the effect of weaker iron ore. The energy sector rose more than 3%, supported by another surge in oil prices as instability surrounding the Iran conflict continued.

At the other end of the market, the financials sector fell more than 5%, with selling continuing from the previous week as reporting season weighed on sentiment. The consumer discretionary sector dropped more than 4% after JB Hi-Fi's result triggered a broader sell-off across retail stocks. Consumer staples fell more than 2%, which Gillham said may reflect short-term profit-taking after the sector's strong run earlier this year.

CSL led the ASX 100 this week, climbing more than 25% after its FY26 result. The market responded positively to the company's major restructuring plans. Pro Medicus rose more than 15% after another strong FY26 result that reassured investors its underlying growth story remains intact. Evolution Mining gained more than 14%, supported by a record FY26 result and another strong rise in the gold price.

At the other end, JB Hi-Fi was the weakest performer, falling more than 14%. Despite record FY26 sales, investors focused on weaker recent trading and its implications for FY27 growth. Aurizon Holdings fell around 13% as expectations of lower coal earnings in FY27 overshadowed an otherwise solid result. HUB24 fell more than 12% despite delivering strong earnings growth, with investors weighing how much future growth is already priced in after a significant rise in recent years.

The All Ordinaries Index finished almost flat, falling just 0.16% this week. The most important move came on Thursday, when the market tested the 9,200 level after drifting lower earlier in the week. Buyers stepped in and pushed the market higher. Gillham said that initial reaction is encouraging and reinforces 9,200 as the key level to watch. If it fails to hold, 9,000 becomes the next support level.

Only a couple of weeks of reporting season remain, and most major companies have now released their results. Gillham said volatility should begin to settle, providing a clearer picture of where the market wants to head next. The market's underlying structure looks considerably different from what was seen earlier this year. The recent weakness still resembles a retracement within a broader bullish move, he said, and does not appear to signal the beginning of something more serious.

BHP's Alpha Score from AlphaScala is 73, labelled Moderate, indicating a balanced risk-reward profile in the basic materials sector. Rio Tinto's Alpha Score is 62, also Moderate. CSL is currently unscored.

Gillham said the market's reaction around 9,200 is now crucial, and so far it is positive. If buyers continue defending this level, it will strengthen the bullish case and could position the market for a healthy finish to the year, especially if the traditional Christmas rally takes shape.