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Consumer Sentiment Improves in June, Still Near Record Low
Consumer sentiment rose to 48.9 in June, beating expectations but remaining near recession lows. Gas price relief provided a lift. The next CPI print on July 12 tests whether the bounce holds.
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The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index climbed to 48.9 in the preliminary June reading, up 9% from April and above the 46.1 economists had expected. The 4.1-point gain ended a three-month slide that had pushed the index to its lowest level on record.
At 48.9, sentiment remains deep in recession territory. The index has now spent three consecutive months below 50, a threshold that historically correlates with contracting consumer spending. April's final reading of 47.8 was the lowest since the survey began in 1952. June's improvement still leaves the measure roughly 40% below its pre-pandemic average.
The move followed a stretch of gas price relief that lowered the national average pump price by about 15 cents from May peaks. Gasoline prices are the single most visible inflation signal for households. The survey's current conditions component rose to 55.4 from 52.5, while the expectations component climbed to 44.8 from 41.4.