Polymarket odds for CLARITY Act passage fell to 24% from 57% in June. Coinbase VP VanGrack told CBS the bill can still pass before the August recess if last-minute concessions unlock consensus.
Coinbase Vice President Ryan VanGrack told CBS News the CLARITY Act still has a chance to pass before the August 2026 recess, even as political friction on Capitol Hill has intensified. The exchange executive said last-minute concessions are normal for complex legislation and that the bill's technical framework has support from both parties.
The legislation, which sets jurisdictional boundaries for digital assets and includes investor safeguards alongside federal oversight provisions, has been in Senate committee negotiations for months. Coinbase's legal team believes the text can unlock consensus with adjustments, VanGrack said.
The bill's path hit a snag when Democratic leadership in the Senate requested a delay, conditioning progress on the White House's response to a jointly formulated ethics proposal. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said he still intends to hold a procedural vote before the recess. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has urged lawmakers to move quickly.
Traders have priced in rising uncertainty. On the Polymarket prediction platform, odds of the law being enacted this year fell to 24% by the end of Q2 2026, down from 57% in early June. The Senate's summer recess starts in the second week of August, leaving a narrow window for a floor vote before the fall election cycle.
The sector has operated under existing financial rules for 15 years. Coinbase previously sued the SEC to compel a formal rulebook for crypto, arguing that the industry needs clear classifications, not enforcement-first oversight. The company won a partial victory in that case.
Bernstein analysts said further delay would prolong the U.S. regulatory vacuum and could pressure digital asset valuations. The discount on Coinbase shares relative to the broader market has widened. Ark Invest bought 54,776 Coinbase shares worth $8 million after the post-earnings drop, a sign that some institutional buyers see value at current levels.
The CLARITY Act remains the most concrete attempt at a federal market structure bill for crypto. Whether it reaches a vote before August will depend on how the White House handles the ethics proposal and whether Thune can hold his caucus. The Senate returns from recess in September, but the window for legislative action narrows sharply after that as the campaign season intensifies.
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