Coinbase launches 15-minute crypto prediction markets via Kalshi

Coinbase has launched prediction markets for US users, letting them place binary bets on whether the price of major cryptocurrencies will rise or fall over timeframes as short as 15 minutes. The contracts, powered by Kalshi, went live January 27-28, 2026, covering BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, DOGE, and HYPE with a $1 minimum in USD or USDC.

These are binary contracts. The simplest version asks whether BTC will be up or down in 15 minutes. Settlement uses the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index, which averages 60 volume-weighted price readings from the final minute before expiry. Coinbase said that structure makes it harder to game the result with a single market order.

The BRTI index averages 60 volume-weighted price readings from the final minute. Coinbase said that structure defends against last-second manipulation that can plague single-price settlement.

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, so the contracts carry compliance legitimacy. Coinbase chose to route all flow through Kalshi rather than build its own infrastructure. The company said the routing ensures regulatory compliance. The partnership was announced in December 2025 during Coinbase's System Update event.

CEO Brian Armstrong has described Coinbase's goal as an "everything exchange" where users access any financial instrument. Prediction markets fit that vision, adding event contracts to the existing mix of spot crypto and stocks.

For retail traders, the appeal is a new way to express short-term directional views without the complexity of leverage or margin calls. The downside is capped at the $1 stake. For more experienced participants, a 15-minute contract could serve as a lightweight hedge against short-term price dips without needing a derivatives exchange.

For Coinbase as a business, prediction markets add a new revenue stream. Each contract generates fees, and if the short-duration contracts gain traction, the volume of daily settlements could drive meaningful revenue even at small per-contract margins. It also increases platform stickiness: a user who trades spot and stocks on Coinbase now has prediction markets as an additional reason to stay.

Beta testing showed active trading, particularly in the 15-minute BTC contracts, the company said. The contracts are available alongside spot trading and stocks within the same Coinbase interface.