Coinbase Exec Sees CLARITY Act Passing Despite 31% Polymarket Odds

Coinbase’s head of institutional strategy, John D’Agostino, told reporters he is “relentlessly optimistic” the CLARITY Act will pass the Senate. The bill, which would create the first federal market-structure rulebook for digital assets, faces long odds. Bettors on Polymarket give it a 31% chance, down from 39% two weeks ago. JPMorgan analysts put passage at 37%.

D’Agostino pointed to the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin law signed in July 2025 after a similarly messy final stretch. “Everybody remembers genius passing flawlessly, but it was argued until the very, very last minute,” he said. His argument is that CLARITY Act negotiations look chaotic now for the same reason the GENIUS Act did in its final days, not because the bill is in real danger.

Coinbase chief policy officer Faryar Shirzad struck a similar note, saying the remaining work is procedural. “We’ve got ethics nailed down, we’ve got nominations nailed down, we’ve got a bipartisan bill on the substance, we should be good to go,” he said.

The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill on a 15-9 vote. It still needs 60 votes on the floor. Majority Leader John Thune has reportedly deprioritized the CLARITY Act behind federal nominations and a Russia sanctions bill. Lawmakers leave for recess August 8. If the bill misses that deadline, the next realistic window slides to September. The November midterms would complicate things further.

A Wall Street coalition including BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Goldman Sachs and SoFi has kept lobbying for passage. The institutional interest is clear.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong struck a more detached tone on the company’s Q2 earnings call. He said the exchange would be fine even if the bill fails before recess, noting Coinbase already follows many practices the CLARITY Act would require. Armstrong pointed to a regulatory backstop: SEC chair Paul Atkins and CFTC head Michael Selig could issue their own market-structure rules using existing authority. Atkins has separately confirmed the SEC would move independently if lawmakers miss the deadline.

That contingency changes the stakes. A Senate-passed CLARITY Act would carry the force of statute and be harder to unwind under a future administration. Agency-level rules from the SEC and CFTC could be revised or reversed the next time regulators change. Armstrong’s comments suggest Coinbase is hedging against delay rather than treating passage as make-or-break.

Armstrong still framed the recess deadline as useful pressure. He said it “tends to get people to the table at the last minute.” That dynamic echoes the ethics-provision standoff between the White House and Senate Democrats over enforcement language earlier this month.