Coinbase, Circle Rally; Alpha Scores 29, 28 Warn of Weakness

Coinbase closed at $165.48 on July 2, up 3.92%. Circle closed at $64.62, up 4.31%. The moves gave COIN a $43.81 billion market cap and CRCL a $17.23 billion market cap. AlphaScala's proprietary Alpha Score placed COIN at 29 out of 100, labeled Weak. CRCL scored 28, also Weak.

Coinbase's business spans trading, custody, staking, and subscriptions. First-quarter revenue came in at about $1.43 billion. Transaction revenue weakened as trading volumes slowed. The company posted a quarterly loss.

Circle's case rests on USDC, a regulated stablecoin. First-quarter USDC circulation reached $77 billion, up 28% year over year. On-chain transaction volume hit $21.5 trillion, 263% higher than a year ago. Revenue and reserve income climbed 20% to $694 million.

The risks differ. Coinbase depends on crypto market activity. A quiet market reduces trading fees. Circle earns from reserve assets; falling interest rates could compress that income. Both face competition.

The technical picture shows COIN holding above $165 with support near $162.50. CRCL trades near $65 with support at $64. A break above $66 would target $67.50.

Alpha Scores of 29 and 28 place both stocks in the bottom tier of the sector. The July 2 rally does not change their fundamental ratings.