Senate has days to hold a CLARITY Act floor vote. Cloture needs 60 votes. Polymarket odds have slid to 28%. Failure pushes passage to 2027.
Alpha Score of 67 reflects moderate overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he still expects a floor vote on the CLARITY Act this week. The chamber has a handful of legislative days left before its August recess, and lawmakers do not return until 14 September.
Under Senate rules, Thune had to start the procedural clock on 4 August to allow a 6 August vote on whether to open debate. That cloture motion needs 60 of 100 senators. As of Tuesday, the bill was not on the official floor schedule and no motion had been filed.
Republicans hold 53 seats. At least seven Democrats have to cross over. Committee support suggests two are there – Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks – while Chris Murphy, Chris Van Hollen and Jeff Merkley formally opposed the bill in mid-July after a merged draft dropped an ethics provision Democrats had treated as a condition.
Polymarket odds on the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 have slid to roughly 28 percent, down from a February peak of 82 percent. Galaxy Research cut its own enactment estimate from 50 percent to 30 percent this week.
The bill's core is jurisdictional. The SEC keeps oversight of investment contracts and tokenized securities. The CFTC gains full spot market authority over digital commodities, an expansion given it currently holds derivatives jurisdiction with limited reach into spot markets.
A grandfather clause in the current draft would treat tokens tied to spot ETFs listed before 1 January 2026 as commodities by default, covering XRP, Solana, Litecoin, Hedera, Dogecoin and Chainlink. New projects could raise up to 75 million dollars a year without full SEC registration, subject to disclosure. JPMorgan flagged that provision alone as capable of pulling onshore venture activity back from offshore.
Failure in 2026 would not kill the bill. It would push final passage into 2027, an election-shadowed year, with the agencies carrying the regulatory load in the meantime. Each missed deadline has chipped away at confidence that Congress can deliver a framework before election-cycle gridlock sets in.
For traders, a successful procedural vote before Friday is a positive catalyst. Another slip means the regulatory story goes quiet until mid-September.
JPMorgan (JPM) currently holds an Alpha Score of 67, labeled Moderate, with the stock trading at $357.52, up 1.38 percent on the session.
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