
The CLARITY Act returns to the Senate on July 13 after missing its July 4 target. An ethics bill from Senator Van Hollen and disagreements over Section 604 remain the biggest hurdles. CFTC Chair Selig said the bill is close.
Alpha Score of 65 reflects moderate overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, weak quality, moderate sentiment.
The CLARITY Act returns to the Senate on July 13 after missing a July 4 target. The bill, which would create a federal framework for digital assets, cleared the House in late 2025 and passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14. It now needs 60 Senate votes to advance.
The biggest hurdle is an ethics bill from Senator Chris Van Hollen. Democrats want stricter rules barring government officials from profiting on crypto investments while in office. Republicans and Democrats are still negotiating the final language.
Section 604, the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, is another sticking point. It protects non-custodial software developers from being treated as money transmitters. Senator Ron Wyden urged Senate leaders to keep the provision, arguing developers who never control customer funds should not face those rules.
Senator Elizabeth Warren continues to oppose the bill, warning parts of the current draft could create loopholes for sanctions evasion and illicit finance.
If the Senate passes its version, the House and Senate would need to reconcile differences before sending the bill to President Trump. Lawmakers said missing this window could delay the bill until September or later because of the election calendar.
CFTC Chair Michael Selig told Fox Business after the July 4 miss that "we're so close" and called a federal standard for crypto assets "absolutely critical."
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 recently dropped to around 49%.
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