CLARITY Act vote delayed to September, Bitwise warns

The CLARITY Act will not get a Senate vote until September, a delay that Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said could briefly pressure crypto prices before removing a major source of uncertainty.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed the chamber would not vote on the legislation before the August recess. He said the bill would be prepared for consideration after senators return.

The delay came after several days without a cloture filing, the procedural step needed to limit debate and move toward a floor vote. Crypto.news reported that Thune filed cloture on spending legislation and a college sports bill but not the CLARITY Act.

Hougan said the delay could produce a brief negative market reaction as traders adjust their expectations.

“If the Polymarket odds break solidly lower into the teens at least so we can put the uncertainty behind us,” Hougan wrote.

He said crypto prices could “wobble for a minute” before the market potentially recovers during the fall.

The CLARITY Act would establish a federal market structure for digital assets and divide oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. For U.S. crypto companies and investors, the bill could replace parts of the current enforcement-led system with statutory rules covering trading platforms and digital-asset intermediaries.

Republicans need Democratic support to advance it. The Senate’s cloture threshold requires 60 votes, while Republicans hold 53 seats. With 53 seats, Republicans need at least seven Democrats to reach the 60-vote threshold.

Negotiations have focused on ethics restrictions for elected officials and illicit-finance safeguards. Sen. Cynthia Lummis said lawmakers had spent 11 months working on the legislation and continued negotiating daily. Crypto.news reported that Lummis had pushed for a vote before the recess but acknowledged that several provisions remained unresolved.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren said she supports passing crypto legislation but opposes the current CLARITY Act. She cited concerns involving political conflicts of interest, consumer protection, national security, and financial stability.

Crypto prices showed no immediate broad sell-off following the delay. Bitcoin remained above $64,400, while Ethereum held above $1,900 and XRP traded near $1.05 at the time covered by the initial report.

Prediction markets had already priced in much of the legislative risk before Thune confirmed the postponement. Polymarket’s probability of the bill becoming law in 2026 fell from above 70% earlier in the year to around 17% as the recess approached.

Repeated Senate scheduling setbacks drove the decline. Crypto.news reported that the bill was absent from the Aug. 4 floor schedule, with no cloture motion filed.

Hougan said another drop into the teens could bring a final repricing of the near-term legislative outlook. His view differs from a warning issued earlier in the week by Bernstein, which said a failed vote or delay could trigger another crypto sell-off before a later recovery.

Senators are expected to continue negotiating during the August recess before returning in September.

Thune has said the bill will be placed near the top of the Senate agenda, but lawmakers must still reach a bipartisan agreement and secure 60 votes before beginning full consideration.

The Senate could also amend the House-passed version. Any changes would require the House to approve the revised text before the bill could reach President Donald Trump.

A crowded September calendar and the approaching midterm elections leave lawmakers with a narrower window. Until a bipartisan deal or cloture filing emerges, passage in 2026 will remain uncertain.