CLARITY Act Stalls in July Recess; Passage Odds Drop to 50%

Beyond ethics, lawmakers still need to settle state preemption rules and exchange conflicts of interest. Affiliate trading rules also remain unresolved. Law enforcement groups and Catholic organizations have intensified opposition to the BRCA provision. They argue it could make it harder to investigate crimes such as human trafficking involving digital assets.

Stablecoin yield could resurface as a contentious issue. Banking lobby groups continue to push lawmakers to revisit earlier compromises, Terrett added.

Scheduling is another challenge. Thune has said the Senate will first focus on the annual defense bill when it returns. That could push a CLARITY Act vote into the latter half of July.

Industry leaders remain cautiously optimistic. Miles Jennings said deadlines often force agreements. Kristin Smith believes bipartisan support still gives the bill a viable path forward. Alex Thorn recently lowered his estimate of passage this year from 60% to 50%. He cited the shrinking legislative calendar and lack of visible progress.