CLARITY Act Senate vote could land next week, odds diverge

Stablecoin rewards also remain part of the negotiations. Banking groups have argued that yield-bearing products could pull deposits from traditional lenders. Crypto groups say prior talks already produced major concessions. Mersinger indicated that many lawmakers do not want to reopen that agreement.

Prediction markets around the CLARITY Act Senate vote show stronger confidence in action than enactment. Kalshi traders place about 68% odds on a recorded Senate vote before the August recess. The contract counts cloture votes but excludes voice votes and procedural rulings.

Polymarket traders show greater caution about the final outcome. The market gives the bill about a 38% to 39% chance of becoming law by December 31, 2026. Nearly $2 million has moved through that contract.

That gap reflects the crypto market structure bill's remaining procedural risks. A Senate vote would not guarantee passage. It would also not ensure that the Senate text matches the House-approved version. Any material changes could require another House vote or a formal effort to reconcile both versions.

The bill would divide digital asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC. It would also define when tokens fall under securities or commodities rules. Exchanges, custodians, brokers, and developers would gain clearer federal requirements under the planned framework.

A broader Kalshi market prices a 61% chance that crypto market structure legislation will become law before April 2027. Odds fall near 54% for passage before July 2027 and roughly 58% before October 2027.

Mersinger also identified crypto tax reform as the industry's next major legislative target. She described stablecoin rules, market structure, and tax changes as three linked policy goals. Current tax provisions were written before digital assets became a large financial market.