
Polymarket odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 fell to 36% from 82% as Senate Democrats demand ethics limits on Trump's crypto holdings. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $197M inflows while XRP ETFs bled $7M.
The Senate version of the CLARITY Act stalled this week as an updated draft failed to win broad Democratic support, people familiar with the talks said. The legislation, one of the most ambitious efforts to set federal rules for digital assets, now faces an uncertain path to a floor vote before the August 10 recess.
At a Capitol Hill press conference, Senators Chris Murphy, Jeff Merkley, Chris Van Hollen, and Elizabeth Warren argued the bill should not advance without language limiting President Trump's ability to maintain personal crypto business interests. Murphy said there is little value in new crypto rules if they fail to prevent conflicts of interest. The group wants provisions that restrict senior government officials, including the president, from holding crypto holdings while in office.
The White House has said it supports ethics rules that apply equally to everyone. The administration opposes provisions aimed at a single officeholder.
The math makes the standoff consequential. Republicans hold 52 Senate seats. The CLARITY Act needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. At least seven Democrats must support it. With several Democrats publicly opposing the current version, the bill stalls unless both parties reach a compromise on ethics.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune continues to push for a vote before the August recess. Senator Cynthia Lummis has said updated bill text should be released within days. Lummis frames the legislation as a financial freedom issue, not an ethics debate.
Ripple's global co-head of public policy, Lauren Belive, argued that rejecting the bill would hurt crypto users more than politicians. The bill would improve consumer protection and reduce regulatory uncertainty that currently exposes investors to bad actors, she said.
The political uncertainty has already moved market sentiment. Polymarket's odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 dropped from roughly 82% in February to about 36%.
Institutional flows have been mixed. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $197 million in inflows last week. Ethereum ETFs added $84.4 million, ending eight consecutive weeks of outflows. Solana ETFs also posted modest inflows. XRP ETFs saw $7.18 million in net outflows, the only major U.S. spot crypto ETF category to record weekly withdrawals.
The next major development will come from negotiations between Senate leaders and the White House. The final wording on ethics provisions could determine whether the CLARITY Act advances this summer or faces another delay.
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