Senate Majority Leader Thune filed a cloture motion for the CLARITY Act, setting a September vote. The bill needs 60 votes. Kalshi sees 88% odds, Polymarket 26% for law this year. Coinbase fumes.
Alpha Score of 37 reflects weak overall profile with poor momentum, weak value, poor quality, strong sentiment.
The Senate will not hold a floor vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act until September at the earliest. Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture motion to bring the bill to a vote when the chamber returns from recess mid-September. The CLARITY Act needs 60 votes to advance. The House passed the bill over a year ago.
Senator Cynthia Lummis said she was frustrated by the delay. Coinbase's leadership called the timing disappointing. The exchange still sees a real opening in September.
Kalshi users put an 88% probability on a Senate vote before October 1. Polymarket users are less optimistic. They see only a 26% chance the bill becomes law this year. The gap between the two prediction markets reflects the uncertainty around the legislative path.
A Senate vote is not the final step. If the bill passes, it goes back to the House before it can reach the President's desk. Each step risks stalling the momentum.
Ethics disputes have slowed bipartisan negotiations. Lawmakers cannot agree on how to handle rules tied to Donald Trump's crypto investments. His family's World Liberty Financial and a memecoin project he launched have drawn scrutiny. Some members want stricter ethical guidelines in the bill. Others oppose that as a poison pill.
Banking groups also object. The CLARITY Act as written could allow companies to pay interest on stablecoin holdings. Small banks rely on interest income to compete for deposits. Stablecoin yield would be a competitive threat they say they cannot absorb.
Midterm elections add pressure. Legislators in tough races may not want to take a high-profile vote on crypto regulation weeks before voters go to the polls.
The Senate reconvenes in mid-September. That is the next concrete date. Until then, the gap between Kalshi's 88% and Polymarket's 26% offers the most honest read on where the bill stands.
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