Probability of Trump signing crypto bill in 2026 falls from 46% to 38% as stablecoin yield and ethics disputes block Senate vote. XRP, ETH, SOL await CFTC classification.
Alpha Score of 58 reflects moderate overall profile with strong momentum, poor value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
The probability of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law this year has dropped to 38%, down from 46% a week earlier, according to prediction market data. The bill, which passed the House in July, remains stuck in the Senate with no scheduled vote before the August recess.
Analysts tracking the legislation said unresolved disputes on two issues are blocking progress: whether stablecoins can pay yield and the exact ethics language for lawmakers trading digital assets. Those disagreements have pushed the estimated passage odds for 2026 to around 47–48%, down from earlier projections.
The CLARITY Act would classify XRP, Ethereum, and Solana as digital commodities under CFTC oversight. That shift would remove the securities-label risk that has hung over those tokens for years. XRP in particular has drawn attention from traders betting on a regulatory win, though the stalled timeline has cooled some of that enthusiasm.
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have not yet scheduled a vote. A bipartisan breakthrough before the recess could reset expectations. Further delay or public opposition from either side would likely push the odds lower.
The August recess deadline is the next concrete pressure point. If the Senate does not act by then, the bill's chances of passing in 2025 effectively vanish, forcing a restart next year.
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