
The CLARITY Act's market-implied odds of passage by end-2026 dropped to 33% as Lummis pushes law-enforcement provisions to win Senate votes before the August recess.
Senator Cynthia Lummis said the CLARITY Act gives law enforcement faster tools to freeze suspected illicit funds and extend financial rules to digital assets. Her comments came as the bill's market-implied probability of passage by end-2026 slipped to 33%, down from 46% a day earlier.
The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act of 2025 has cleared the House and the Senate Banking Committee. It now needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster on the Senate floor. Lummis framed the law-enforcement provisions as a core argument to sway undecided Democrats before the August 2026 recess.
Market pricing reflects growing uncertainty about whether the bill can secure the additional Democratic votes. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and President Donald Trump are expected to shape the bill's path. Traders are watching for any statement from the White House or Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that signals a shift in support.
The next concrete marker is a scheduled Senate vote. No date has been set.
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