Sign In Get Started

CLARITY Act odds slip as Senate stalls ahead of recess

Crypto▼ Bearish

CLARITY Act odds slip as Senate stalls ahead of recess

2026-08-05 15:13 UTCBy AlphaScala Research DeskSource reporting: Crypto newsEditorial standards

CLARITY Act odds slip as Senate stalls ahead of recess

Click a ticker for a live chart

Kalshi odds for the CLARITY Act taking effect before July 2027 dropped to 41% after Senate leaders failed to file cloture. The Aug. 5 deadline for a pre-recess vote has passed.

Continue with

Dartmouth crypto ETF value falls 15% to $12.4M; shares unchanged

What is Bitcoin and how does it work?

Prediction markets pushed the expected timeline for the CLARITY Act into 2027 after Senate leaders let the pre-recess window close without filing the procedural motion needed for a vote.

Kalshi traders have grown more skeptical that Congress will finish the crypto market structure bill in 2026. A contract tracking whether the legislation takes effect before July 1, 2027, dropped eight percentage points to 41% on Tuesday. The probability of enactment before Oct. 1, 2027, stood at 58%. Odds for passage before Jan. 1, 2028, rose to 65%, Kalshi data show. More than $5.42 million has changed hands across the market.

The shift followed another day without a cloture filing from Senate Majority Leader John Thune. That step prevents the chamber from starting the formal countdown toward a procedural vote. The Senate's Aug. 4 floor schedule did not list H.R. 3633. The chamber's official roster of pending cloture motions named two unrelated measures. No motion covering the CLARITY Act had been submitted by the end of Tuesday's session.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan identified Wednesday, Aug. 5, as the practical deadline for Senate leaders to file cloture and preserve the possibility of a Friday vote. Under Senate Rule XXII, a cloture motion requires signatures from 16 senators. The vote typically occurs one hour after the Senate convenes on the next calendar day one after the filing. If cloture succeeds, the measure can still face up to 30 hours of debate.

The timeline leaves little room to resolve outstanding disagreements before the recess. Journalist Eleanor Terrett attributed Thune's hesitation partly to procedural complications around a continuing resolution, uncertainty over support, and unresolved provisions. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. The bill would need at least seven Democratic votes to reach the 60-vote cloture threshold, assuming full GOP support.

Lawmakers are also weighing changes to preserve state and tribal authority over sports betting and casino-related markets. At a Senate Indian Affairs Committee roundtable on Tuesday, Indian Gaming Association Vice Chairman Tehassi Hill argued that sports and casino prediction markets should remain under state and tribal gaming laws. That position conflicts with interpretations that would place such contracts exclusively under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Supporters of the proposed change see the CLARITY Act as a possible vehicle for defining the limits of the CFTC's power over prediction markets. Adding that dispute to a broader crypto package could complicate an already delicate bipartisan negotiation. Separate talks over ethics provisions and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act remain unresolved, a person familiar with the discussions said.

Missing the immediate Senate window would not kill the CLARITY Act. It would delay any statutory division of authority between the SEC and CFTC. U.S. crypto firms would continue to rely on agency rules and existing enforcement interpretations, Hougan wrote in an Aug. 4 investor memo. He added that SEC rulemaking could offer a path for regulatory clarity while traditional financial firms expand their digital asset operations. The delay risks the U.S. crypto lead, as Haridopolos warned.

"Crypto will be fine," Hougan wrote. Kalshi's latest pricing reflects that distinction. Traders have not abandoned the prospect of market structure legislation. They increasingly expect any final agreement to arrive in 2027 rather than before the end of 2026.