Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn says the calendar is 'the enemy' as Senate prioritizes sanctions and nominations before recess, leaving crypto bill's 2026 prospects narrowing. Polymarket odds drop to 34%.
Alpha Score of 66 reflects moderate overall profile with strong momentum, weak value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
Prediction markets are lowering the chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026. The Senate turned to Russia sanctions, federal nominations and Iran legislation before its August recess, leaving the crypto market structure bill without a scheduled floor vote.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has not set a date for action on the bill. The chamber is moving forward with other priorities. Preliminary work on the crypto legislation remains possible during the week of Aug. 3, but the Senate is set to begin its summer recess after Aug. 7.
Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn said the timetable has become the main threat to passage.
“The calendar is no longer merely an obstacle. It is now the enemy,” Thorn said.
Thorn estimated lawmakers needed to start the floor process by July 30 to leave enough time for procedural votes and debate. The Senate’s decision to prioritize other legislation makes that timeline increasingly difficult.
A vote after the recess is still possible. Senators would return closer to the November midterm elections, when campaigning could displace complicated legislation requiring bipartisan negotiations.
Most legislation needs 60 votes to overcome the Senate filibuster. Republicans control 53 seats.
Thorn argues the bill’s effective Republican support may be closer to 50. Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul have not committed to voting for the measure. Mitch McConnell’s hospitalization could prevent him from participating.
Under that scenario, Republicans would need 10 Democratic votes to advance the bill.
The Senate Banking Committee approved its version of the CLARITY Act in May by a 15-9 vote. Two Democrats joined Republicans. Both Democratic supporters warned that their committee votes did not guarantee backing on the floor without further changes, particularly to ethics provisions governing public officials’ crypto interests.
President Donald Trump later accepted the inclusion of ethics restrictions. That helped Polymarket odds reach 53% on July 21. Those gains have since reversed. The market shows roughly 34% odds at the time of publication.
Kalshi showed traders assigning a 42% probability to crypto market structure legislation becoming law before the end of 2026.
SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said Democratic opposition may persist because Trump has made the bill part of his political agenda.
“They will do everything they can to block it because he wants it,” Scaramucci said.
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has made a similar argument. He warned that the “Trump narrative” has turned crypto regulation into a partisan dispute.
Democrats have raised concerns about the adequacy of the proposed ethics rules, citing Trump’s family-linked crypto activities. They have also sought stronger consumer protections and restrictions covering officials’ indirect financial interests.
Republicans have made several concessions to attract Democratic votes. The revised language has not produced enough public commitments to clear the 60-vote threshold. The bill would also return to the House if the Senate approves a materially different version, adding another step before it could reach Trump’s desk.
Bitcoin traded near $63,800 at the time of publication, down about 1.6% over the previous session. It moved between roughly $62,772 and $64,953.
The decline coincided with the Senate delay. The timing alone does not establish that the CLARITY Act caused the broader market pullback. Macro conditions, derivatives positioning and weaker demand can also affect daily price movements.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $11.64 million in net outflows on July 27. BlackRock’s IBIT led with an $8.82 million withdrawal. Ether funds attracted $9.23 million. XRP ETFs added about $592,000.
For US investors, another delay would preserve the existing mix of SEC and CFTC oversight, court decisions and state-level rules instead of creating a single federal market structure. The bill is not dead. Failure to begin the Senate process before the August recess would leave its 2026 prospects dependent on a narrower post-election legislative window.
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