CLARITY Act odds sink to 31% as Trump stalls on ethics

Republicans must decide whether to accept an ethics provision strong enough to attract Democratic votes without losing support from Trump or members of their own party. Thune's comments show that the Senate does not yet have the cross-party deal needed to proceed. The approaching recess leaves negotiators with little time to settle the dispute.

The House has already passed its version of the CLARITY Act. The Senate must approve its own text before the legislation can reach Trump's desk. Differences between the two versions would also need to be resolved and approved by both chambers, adding further steps to an already compressed timetable.

For crypto companies, the bill is intended to establish clearer federal oversight by defining the roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its delayed progress leaves those proposed rules tied to negotiations over presidential ethics and decentralized finance.

Alongside the ethics debate, the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act has continued to divide supporters of the CLARITY Act and law enforcement groups. The BRCA language would protect developers of decentralized protocols from being held responsible for activity carried out by their users.

Under the provision, qualifying developers would not automatically be treated as money transmitters merely because they created or maintained decentralized software. Industry groups view that protection as necessary for developers who do not hold customer assets or control transactions.

Law enforcement organizations have taken the opposite position, arguing that the proposal could make investigations into illicit finance more difficult. Their objections have added another contested issue for senators preparing the revised market structure bill.

Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger expects the BRCA protections to survive the Senate negotiations. Speaking to Crypto In America, Mersinger indicated that she believes lawmakers will keep the provision intact when they publish the updated text.

Mersinger has also predicted that the Senate could hold a floor vote this week, as previously reported by crypto.news. Despite concerns about whether the measure can attract enough votes, she expressed confidence that lawmakers could still move it through the chamber.

Thune's admission that no bipartisan agreement exists shows that a vote depends on negotiators resolving more than the DeFi language. According to Crypto In America's reporting, the White House's undecided position on ethics remains the immediate obstacle to releasing the next bill text.

With the August recess approaching, Senate leaders face a narrowing window to settle both disputes, publish revised language and build the coalition required for a floor vote. Polymarket's 31% probability reflects traders' view that those unresolved negotiations represent a substantial threat to the bill becoming law this year.