Crypto▼ Bearish
CLARITY Act odds sink to 27% after Senate delays crypto bill
CLARITY Act odds fall to 27% as Tyler Williams, Harry Jung, Hester Peirce, and Cynthia Lummis leave federal crypto roles before the Senate votes on market structure legislation.
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The odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 have fallen to 27% on Polymarket as of July 29, down from an 82% peak in February. The drop reflects a compressed succession problem across Treasury, the White House, the SEC and the Senate.
Tyler Williams, who served as Secretary Scott Bessent's principal adviser on blockchain and digital asset policy, left Treasury on July 31 and returned to the private sector. His exit is the fourth senior crypto departure from a federal policy role this year.
Harry Jung left the White House Crypto Council on July 20, ending his coordination of digital asset policy between agencies, Congress and the administration. Hester Peirce, who leads the SEC's Crypto Task Force, plans to leave the agency later this year. Senator Cynthia Lummis, chair of the Senate Banking Committee's digital assets subcommittee, has said she won't seek re-election and will leave the Senate when her term ends in January 2027.
Each departure removes a specific function from the unfinished legislative process. Williams coordinated Treasury's side of stablecoin implementation, bank guidance and illicit-finance rules. Jung linked the White House, Congress and the agencies daily. Peirce's task force is drafting how token classification and registration would work inside the SEC, and Lummis helped write the market-structure bill and negotiate it through committee.
The CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee by a 15-9 vote, but it still needs a floor vote and 60 votes to survive a Senate filibuster. The House already passed its own version, H.R. 3633, by 294-134 in July 2025. Ethics provisions, banking-industry opposition and a Senate calendar squeezed by the midterms sit between committee passage and a president's signature.
CLARITY would settle where SEC authority ends and CFTC authority begins, assigning the CFTC jurisdiction over digital commodity spot markets while the SEC retains authority over securities and investment contract assets. That boundary decides which exchanges can list a given token, what disclosures a project owes buyers, and which regulator an investor can turn to when a platform fails. The Senate version of CLARITY would also set registration rules for digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers, covering disclosures, conflicts of interest, financial responsibility, cybersecurity and customer asset protection.