
Senate delays Clarity Act vote to September, prioritizing budget and sanctions. Prediction market odds for 2026 passage fall to 15.5% from 30% a week ago.
The Senate postponed debate on the Clarity Act until September, pushing the crypto market structure bill past the summer recess. The chamber’s leadership chose to prioritize a budget resolution, Russia sanctions, and judicial confirmations before members leave Washington.
Senate leader John Thune told Politico the crypto legislation would land “in whatever the final tranche of votes is.” He described ongoing talks with Democrats on remaining items but said the schedule forced the delay, not a withdrawal of the bill itself.
Prediction markets reacted immediately. The probability of the law passing before the end of 2026 dropped to 15.5%, down from 18% the prior day and 30% a week earlier. The House has already passed the bill.
The Clarity Act would settle the jurisdictional fight between the SEC and the CFTC over digital asset oversight. Until the Senate takes it up, the regulatory gap remains open.
Thune acknowledged the uncertainty. “We’ve been having these conversations with Democrats trying to figure out what’s the path,” he said. The next window for a vote opens when Congress returns in September.
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