YES shares for the Clarity Act fell to 22.5% after Senate Dems blocked cloture, demanding ethics provisions tied to Trump's crypto holdings. Schumer and Scott are the next catalyst points.
Alpha Score of 52 reflects moderate overall profile with moderate momentum, poor value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
Senate Democrats will block cloture on the Clarity Act, the bill that would split digital asset oversight between the SEC and the CFTC. The move follows stalled negotiations led by Senator John Thune, who failed to secure a bipartisan ethics agreement, two Senate aides said.
The Clarity Act needs 60 votes to end debate and reach a final floor vote. Democrats are demanding stronger ethics provisions targeting conflicts of interest tied to President Trump and his family's crypto holdings. Without those provisions, the bill cannot advance, the aides said.
Prediction markets have repriced the odds sharply. YES shares for the Clarity Act's passage in 2026 fell to 22.5% on Monday, down from 26% 24 hours ago and 34% a week ago. The drop suggests traders see the legislative path as increasingly narrow, particularly given the current political impasse.
The next catalyst is any movement from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer or Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott. If Schumer schedules a floor vote without the ethics language, the bill dies. If Scott brokers a compromise on ethics, the 60-vote threshold becomes reachable. A White House statement on the bill would also shift the odds, traders said.
The cloture vote has no new date. The Clarity Act sits in procedural limbo.
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