CLARITY Act odds sink to 21% as Senate delay pushes crypto vote

Democratic lawmakers concentrated their objections on the bill's ethics language covering elected officials and digital-asset businesses. Committee staff widened the critique on Aug. 5, identifying five provisions they characterized as major loopholes spanning securities law, illicit finance, and consumer protections.

Negotiators entered August with three open items: ethics enforcement, illicit finance provisions and stablecoin yield. Republicans hold 53 seats, and Galaxy expects at least two to vote against, leaving supporters short of the 60 required to break a filibuster.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated on Aug. 3 that the bill would reach the floor before the break, then confirmed on Aug. 6 that no August vote would occur. The chamber filed a cloture motion on the motion to proceed on Aug. 8, starting the procedural clock without settling the text. Senators return Sept. 14, placing the first cloture vote on Sept. 15.

Payout on the contract requires more than a Senate floor win. The bill must clear Congress and receive a presidential signature before Dec. 31, leaving less than five months on the calendar and a considerably shorter congressional working window.