Senate Majority Leader Thune did not file cloture, leaving unanimous consent as the only path. Kalshi odds sank to 10% from 22% as Hawley became the first GOP no vote.
Alpha Score of 37 reflects weak overall profile with weak momentum, weak value, poor quality, moderate sentiment.
The CLARITY Act has two working days left before the Senate's August recess, and the path to a vote is narrowing fast.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not file the required cloture motion Wednesday. Without that procedural step, the chamber cannot hold a standard floor vote before lawmakers leave for the August 10 break. Under current rules, the only remaining option is a unanimous consent agreement to fast-track the bill.
Republican Sen. Josh Hawley plans to vote against the bill, becoming the first GOP senator to publicly oppose it after banking groups raised concerns. The defection adds to a growing list of hurdles.
Negotiations have not completely stopped. Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego submitted a revised bipartisan proposal to the White House that focuses on the crypto ethics provisions that have stalled the legislation. White House officials have started reviewing the new text, Tillis said.
"We've got people working with the White House right now," Tillis said. "They're going through some of the lines right now."
The ethics dispute has been one of the main reasons Senate Democrats have refused to support the bill. Some lawmakers believe Congress could stay in Washington beyond its scheduled recess if talks make progress. Sen. Cynthia Lummis said she expects senators may continue working into the weekend. Ryan Wrasse, communications director for Thune, also said the Senate's busy schedule could push lawmakers into next week.
Prediction markets are becoming less confident. On Kalshi, the chance of a Senate vote before the August recess dropped to 10%, down from 22% earlier this week. Traders now expect the delay to stretch further.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong pushed back against criticism from banking groups, saying lawmakers should judge the bill on its actual content.
"You have to evaluate the proposal on the merits, and see if there is any evidence for such a claim, or if there might be other incentives the bank lobby has to falsely make this statement," Armstrong said.
The Senate returns after recess on September 8. If no vote happens this week, the bill's next window opens then.
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