
Senate Majority Leader Thune says bipartisan deal possible after Trump agrees to ethics provisions. Polymarket shows 50% chance of signing this year.
The odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year surged to 50% on the Polymarket prediction platform after Senate Majority Leader John Thune said a bipartisan deal is within reach following an agreement on ethics provisions.
Thune wrote on X that there is a “good chance” of a deal, though he warned the situation could still shift. Republicans are working with Democrats to gather the votes needed to bring the bill to the Senate floor, he said.
The ethics provision had been the main obstacle. The White House agreed to language that hands enforcement authority to the Justice Department rather than leaving it to state attorneys general, according to people familiar with the talks. Senator Kevin Cramer confirmed the agreement and said “I think we’re almost there.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers they are at the “1-yard line” on the crypto bill and urged passage before the August recess.
The Polymarket contract now prices a 50% chance that President Trump signs the CLARITY Act this year, up from lower levels before the ethics deal.
The Senate is expected to take up the bill after the July Fourth recess. No floor vote has been scheduled.
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