Senate negotiators won customer protections and an ethics deal, lifting Polymarket's odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year to 43%.
Alpha Score of 35 reflects weak overall profile with weak momentum, weak value, poor quality, moderate sentiment.
Senate negotiations over the CLARITY Act produced new customer safeguards and an ethics agreement, pushing Polymarket's odds of enactment this year to 43%.
CNBC reported that Democratic senators secured additional customer protection measures during talks over the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Unresolved details continue to delay the release of the Senate's final text.
Coinbase Vice Chair Ryan VanGrack told CNBC on Monday the revised protections gave the bill "more teeth." VanGrack said the changes address gaps in the current rules governing digital asset users. He did not describe the specific requirements lawmakers added.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said in a post on X there was a "good chance" of a deal. He cautioned that the talks could still shift course.
Lawmakers are working with Democratic senators to secure enough support to bring the legislation to the floor, according to Thune. The majority leader previously indicated he wants a bipartisan agreement before committing valuable Senate floor time to the bill.
Republicans control 53 Senate seats and need support from at least seven Democrats to reach the 60 votes required to overcome a filibuster. That arithmetic has given Democratic negotiators considerable influence over the customer protection and ethics sections.
An agreement covering elected officials' involvement in digital assets removed one of the main obstacles. Democratic lawmakers pressed for rules addressing potential conflicts connected to President Donald Trump's crypto interests and the participation of public officials. According to Punchbowl News, Trump accepted the inclusion of ethics provisions, helping negotiations advance after weeks of disagreement. The report did not publish the full language. The final restrictions will remain unclear until senators release the updated bill.
Senator Kevin Cramer said negotiators reached an agreement on the ethics language. Under the approach Cramer described, the Justice Department would enforce the provision instead of leaving enforcement to individual state attorneys general. Cramer said the bill was becoming clearer as lawmakers resolved each disputed issue. He added, "I think we're almost there."
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged Congress to complete the legislation before senators leave Washington for their August recess. Bessent described lawmakers as being at the "1-yard line," indicating only a limited number of disputes remained.
Coinbase presented the customer protection concessions as evidence that Democratic participation changed the legislation rather than simply supplying Republican sponsors with the votes they need. VanGrack told CNBC that Democrats used the process to strengthen protections for people who hold or trade digital assets.
Earlier Senate work already included rules governing customer property, pricing, advertising, and fraud. A draft published by the Senate Agriculture Committee requires digital commodity intermediaries to register with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, subject to exemptions written into the proposal.
The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its portion of the market structure package in January. Committee Chair John Boozman stated then that the legislation built on the bipartisan, House-passed CLARITY Act and included provisions negotiated with Senate Democrats.
Despite the latest agreements, CNBC reported the Senate has not released the completed legislative text. Ethics rules remain part of the delay, leaving lawmakers, crypto companies and consumer groups unable to assess the precise restrictions or enforcement powers under discussion.
Thune has said he hopes to bring the CLARITY Act to the Senate floor before August. His comments indicate that scheduling depends on Democrats committing enough votes. A floor vote without that support could stall the bill before the chamber considers amendments or final passage.
The House already approved its version of the CLARITY Act. The Senate is preparing its own text. Any differences between the two chambers would have to be resolved before Congress could send a common version to Trump for his signature.
The legislation seeks to establish federal rules for digital asset markets and clarify the roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the CFTC. Senate Agriculture Committee materials show its portion would give the CFTC authority over digital commodity intermediaries and impose registration, custody, anti-fraud, and customer property requirements.
Traders on Polymarket currently assign a 43% probability that Trump will sign the CLARITY Act into law during 2026, down from the 47% figure cited earlier in the negotiations. Prediction-market odds can change quickly and do not establish whether Congress will meet Thune's preferred timetable.
Senators have not released the completed legislative text.
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