Polymarket odds for the crypto bill fell to 23% this week. Anthony Scaramucci said Trump will sign the bipartisan ethics provision, potentially clearing a path for a Senate vote.
Alpha Score of 54 reflects moderate overall profile with strong momentum, poor value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
The odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year fell to a new low of 23% on Polymarket, down from 30% earlier this week. The drop came as the Senate faces a race to pass the crypto bill before the August recess, with just one week left on the calendar.
SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said he expects President Donald Trump to sign the bipartisan ethics agreement that Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego sent to the White House on Wednesday. “If POTUS ultimately signs off, which I think he will, who will stand in the way of Clarity?” Scaramucci wrote in an X post. He warned that Democrats or Republicans backed by bank lobbyists would “regret it in November” if they block the bill.
The bipartisan ethics package acts as a counteroffer to the partisan ethics provision already in the CLARITY Act. Details remain unclear, but sources told journalist Eleanor Terrett the deal includes a role for state attorneys general. Democrats had opposed the original provision because it only lets federal prosecutors enforce it. A Trump sign-off could clear the way for a Senate vote next week, Senator Cynthia Lummis has said.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Senate to vote on the bill “now” during a public appearance Thursday. Crypto asset manager Grayscale sent a letter to Senate leaders John Thune and Chuck Schumer requesting a floor vote before the recess. The push comes as the CLARITY Act faces its last window for passage this year; if it misses the August deadline, the next opportunity would come after the November election.
In a now-deleted X post, Scaramucci said Trump’s children were comfortable with the bipartisan ethics provision, which he argued could help sway the president. Scaramucci did not provide further details on what the provision contains or how the White House might respond.
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