CLARITY Act odds fall to 10% ahead of Trump crypto meeting

President Donald Trump is expected to meet executives from major crypto and prediction-market companies at the White House on August 19, as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act faces growing political and scheduling challenges in the Senate.

The meeting is expected to include senior officials from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), alongside executives from Coinbase, Ripple, Chainlink, Kalshi, Paradigm and other major industry participants.

The gathering comes at a critical moment for the CLARITY Act. Galaxy Digital estimates that the legislation has only a 10% chance of becoming law in 2026, while prediction markets currently put the probability at roughly 19%.

The reported invite list includes executives from Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz, Ripple, Chainlink, Kalshi, Paradigm and the Digital Chamber. Representatives from Kraken, Gemini, the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq have also reportedly been invited. Trump is expected to participate alongside CFTC Chair Michael Selig and SEC Chair Paul Atkins, although the final attendance list could still change.

The timing is particularly important because the meeting comes less than a month before the Senate is expected to take its next procedural step on the CLARITY Act. The legislation is designed to establish clearer federal rules for digital assets and divide regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC.

The CLARITY Act initially entered the summer with significant bipartisan support. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the legislation by a 15-9 vote on May 14, with two Democratic senators joining all 13 Republicans in supporting it. The House had previously passed H.R. 3633 by 294-134 in July 2025, with 78 Democrats voting in favor.

Negotiations have since become increasingly difficult. Lawmakers have disagreed over several issues, including restrictions on crypto activities involving senior government officials, stablecoin rewards and measures designed to prevent illicit financial activity. Traditional banks have also pushed back against rewards offered by stablecoin platforms, arguing that yield-generating products could pull deposits away from banks.

The most difficult issue has become the ethics debate surrounding Trump's crypto-related businesses. According to Galaxy Digital, the CLARITY negotiations have increasingly shifted from a technical debate over crypto regulation toward a political dispute. A bipartisan group of senators sent the White House a proposed ethics framework on July 30. The administration has not publicly agreed to the framework. That disagreement could make it difficult for supporters of the bill to secure the 60 Senate votes needed to move the legislation forward.

The CLARITY Act passed the Senate's August recess without receiving a floor vote. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has already filed cloture on the motion to proceed, setting up an initial test when lawmakers return on September 14.

The timing leaves lawmakers with a narrow window. The Senate is expected to have only about three weeks of legislative activity before lawmakers leave Washington around October 2 to campaign ahead of the midterm elections. Galaxy therefore estimates that CLARITY would need to begin moving almost immediately after the Senate returns if it is to have a realistic chance of becoming law this year.

The decline in political momentum is reflected in prediction-market pricing. Polymarket traders currently assign approximately a 19% probability that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law during 2026. That is a significant decline from the 82% peak recorded on February 19. Galaxy Digital's estimate is even more cautious, placing the probability of passage this year at just 10%. The difference between the two estimates highlights the uncertainty surrounding the bill.

The legislation still has a procedural path forward, but the remaining legislative calendar and unresolved political disagreements leave little room for further delays.

While Congress struggles to finalize a broader crypto framework, regulators are already attempting to address some of the industry's regulatory questions using existing authority. The SEC under Chair Paul Atkins has been developing initiatives including Reg Crypto and an Innovation Exemption. Reg Crypto is intended to establish a framework tailored to certain crypto offerings, while the Innovation Exemption would allow limited experimentation involving tokenized securities and on-chain trading.

The SEC had scheduled an August 14 vote on its crypto-offering proposal but canceled the meeting the previous day without announcing a new date. The separate Innovation Exemption has also faced delays amid resistance from parts of the traditional securities industry. These initiatives address some of the same questions that CLARITY is designed to settle through legislation, including how digital assets should be issued and traded and which federal rules should govern them. Regulatory action cannot fully replace legislation that establishes a permanent statutory framework.

The CFTC has also become increasingly active in developing its approach to crypto and prediction markets. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has argued that regulators need direct input from companies developing new financial products to keep pace with technological innovation. The agency is scheduled to hold its first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting on August 20, bringing together entrepreneurs, executives and market participants to discuss financial regulation.

The CFTC's approach to prediction markets has already generated a confrontation with state authorities. On August 11, the agency invoked emergency authority after Kalshi warned that a lawsuit brought by New York could disrupt its federally regulated event-contract market across the country. Selig ordered the exchange to continue operating under federal derivatives regulations and argued that states cannot override the national framework governing CFTC-regulated markets. The dispute reflects a wider debate over whether prediction contracts should primarily fall under federal derivatives regulations or state gambling laws.

The August 19 gathering therefore brings together many of the players involved in the current regulatory debate. Crypto companies want clearer federal rules, while the SEC and CFTC are attempting to use their existing authority to provide greater regulatory certainty. At the same time, Congress is struggling to reach an agreement on legislation that would establish a broader and more permanent framework.

The presence of major industry executives could give the administration an opportunity to hear directly from companies affected by the uncertainty. It could also provide an opportunity to address the political disputes surrounding the CLARITY Act before the Senate returns in September. The meeting itself does not guarantee that the legislation will advance.

The next major milestone is the Senate's return on September 14. Lawmakers will then face a compressed legislative calendar, with the midterm election campaign period approaching in early October. For CLARITY supporters, the central challenge will be resolving the ethics dispute and rebuilding enough bipartisan support to reach the Senate's 60-vote threshold.

The White House meeting could become an important part of those negotiations, particularly because executives from companies that have pushed for crypto legislation are expected to participate. If the political disagreements remain unresolved, the legislation could face another delay and potentially lose its chance of becoming law in 2026.

For the crypto industry, that would leave the SEC and CFTC to continue developing portions of the regulatory framework through existing authority, even though those measures cannot provide the same permanence as an act of Congress. The CLARITY Act has moved from being a relatively straightforward regulatory effort to a much more complicated political battle. Despite strong bipartisan support earlier in the legislative process, disagreements over stablecoins, illicit finance and Trump's crypto-related activities have weakened the coalition behind the bill.

With Polymarket odds around 19% and Galaxy Digital estimating just 10%, expectations for passage in 2026 have fallen sharply. The August 19 White House meeting could therefore be an important opportunity for the administration, regulators and industry executives to address the remaining disagreements before the Senate returns.