Clarity Act odds fall after Senate amendments, Polymarket shows

The probability that the Clarity Act becomes law in 2026 has dropped after the bill was amended, according to Polymarket data. The prediction market now puts the chance in the low-30% to low-40% range, down from prior levels. Traders said the revisions introduced new uncertainty about the timeline for Senate passage.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act cleared the House in 2025 and is now under review by the Senate. The amendments, which were not detailed in the source, appeared to shift the calculus among prediction-market participants. A Senate Banking Committee vote or a public endorsement from key lawmakers could change the odds, traders said. Negative comments from the White House or Senate leadership would likely push the probability lower.

Polymarket users are now watching for any further developments in the Senate review, including scheduled hearings or statements from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and President Donald Trump.