Clarity Act odds drop to 46% as Senate hurdles pile up

Prediction-market odds that the Clarity Act becomes law in 2026 fell to 46% from 75% in May, according to Polymarket data. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 passed the House last July and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May. Now it faces floor hurdles in the full Senate tied to an ethics provision and a requirement to align with the Agriculture Committee's version.

The August recess is the next deadline. A floor vote before the break would require a deal between Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and the committee chairs. No floor schedule has been announced. If the bill fails to pass before recess, the next window opens in September. The 46% odds imply the market sees a real chance of delay into 2030, because the current Congress's term ends in January.

Bitcoin and other digital assets have moved in tandem with legislative odds in recent months. The prediction market level functions as a binary indicator for regulatory progress. Above 60% would suggest a floor-vote deal is within weeks; below 40% would signal the bill is dead for this session. No date has been set for a Senate floor vote.